Good morning. It's Friday, Jan. 12. Here's what you need to know to start your day.
Can AI help our roads? Don't bet on it, researchers say
Are you tired of sitting in traffic, thinking, "There's gotta be a better way"?
Well, you're in luck, California! The state's transportation agency wants to put AI to use to help make our commutes less of a soul-wrenching nightmare.
Caltrans is asking tech companies to pitch generative AI tools that could help the state reduce congestion and make roads safer.
"Generative AI tools such as ChatGPT can quickly produce text, images and other content, but the technology can also help workers brainstorm ideas," Times reporter Queenie Wong wrote this week. "The request shows how California is trying to tap into AI to improve government services at a time when lawmakers seek to safeguard against the technology's potential risks."
Anyone else have déjà vu? For more than a century now, government leaders and an array of industries have been pitching us on the cure for our traffic troubles. More lanes! More transit! Carpool and express lanes! Flying Ubers! Autonomous vehicles! To the tunnels!
Spoiler: Nothing has worked (short of a historic global pandemic) to unclog our roads.
California remains one of the most congested and deadliest states to walk, bike and drive (and we have the terrible air to prove it).
So what would AI bring to the table? The details from Caltrans are vague, in large part because the agency isn't sure what the tech could ultimately do.
Rick Brewer, spokesperson for Caltrans in Sacramento, said the technology could be used to analyze an immense amount of incoming traffic data much faster than is humanly possible and present traffic engineers with potential solutions related to signal timing and lane usage. He admitted he was "spitballing," adding that the agency sees potential in AI scouring data to identify previous hotspots for traffic collisions, along with future hazards that engineers could use to add safety improvements more quickly.
"We think there's a lot of potential there," Brewer said. "And I don't think any of us are even totally aware of what that potential might be."
Shiny new tech, same ol' problems
Michael Manville, UCLA professor and chair of the Department of Urban Planning at its Luskin School of Public Affairs, isn't so optimistic about that potential, given decades of evidence about what does and doesn't work.
It comes down to the simple economic principle of supply and demand. We have limited space to drive and we drive a lot. And widening roads just creates more space to drive, which attracts more drivers long-term, and we're back to the slow slogs we know and hate.
"You're telling me we need advanced AI to figure out that it doesn't do much good to widen the f—ing road?" he said. "We've known this since like 1920."
Manville argues that a lack of data-backed solutions isn't the problem, but rather a lack of political courage to put existing solutions, such as congestion pricing, into play. That model has been implemented in several global cities for decades, and New York is poised to become the first U.S. city to implement it. L.A. County officials are just beginning to explore it.
"California has dangerous roads [and] bad traffic congestion in comparison to plenty of other places in the United States — and plenty of other places in the world," he told me. "That's not because those other places have gotten to Skynet first. They just made some hard decisions that we won't make."
Manville worries AI could become the latest thing that government officials hold up as a shield from "political trade-offs."
"If you want to make cities safer for pedestrians, if you want to lower speeds, if you want to deal with congestion in a meaningful way, technology is not going to rescue you from difficult political decisions," he said.
Caltrans' Brewer said the agency doesn't view AI as a "smokescreen" to hide behind in lieu of bolder policy changes — rather, officials hope the technology will help support such changes by surfacing data that justify upgrades and solutions.
"Twelve people every day die on state highways and interstates," he said. "Caltrans is an organization that seriously wants to create a safer highway system. I almost feel like we'd be derelict in our duty if we didn't use what we consider to be the best tools at our disposal to help us get to that ultimate end goal of eliminating deaths and serious injuries on the state highways."
Are we too obsessed with fixing traffic?
If we haven't made driving less of a hellscape in 100 years, why should we expect AI to finally get it right?
Susan Handy, a distinguished professor at UC Davis and director of the National Center for Sustainable Transportation, doesn't think we should. She argues the state's century-long "congestion obsession" has actually made things worse, mostly because the state's solution has historically been to just add more lanes. Caltrans was, after all, established to build highways.
"If you have a hammer, every problem looks like a nail," she said.
Handy argues that reducing congestion shouldn't be the goal — but providing alternatives to congestion should be.
That would require better land use planning in tandem with transportation planning, which Handy said is mostly separated now. Planning decisions that promote density would shorten the distances people need to travel. That's the complex key to truly improving commutes, she said.
"We actually know how to solve our problems," she said. "The reason we're not doing it is largely political will and leadership not being willing to go out on a limb to push the policies we know will make the most difference."
Today's top stories
Who will replace the late California Sen. Dianne Feinstein in the 2024 election? Clockwise from top left, Rep. Adam B. Schiff, Rep. Katie Porter, former Los Angeles Dodger Steve Garvey and Rep. Barbara Lee. (Los Angeles Times)
Elections 2024
Climate and environment
Hunter Biden's tax charges
Politics
Business
More big stories
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Today's great reads
(Sean Dong / For The Times)
Created in California: How Barry's turned grueling military workouts into a sexy lifestyle. Founded in West Hollywood 25 years ago, Barry's helped launch the era of the modern boutique fitness studio. Its glamorous devotees wouldn't sweat anywhere else.
Other great reads
How can we make this newsletter more useful? Send comments to essentialcalifornia@latimes.com.
For your downtime
The bed and breakfast at East Brother Light Station near Richmond, Calif., sits on a small island in the strait separating the San Francisco and San Pablo Bays. (Loren Elliott / For The Times)
Going out
Staying in
And finally ... a great photo
Show us your favorite place in California! Send us photos you have taken of spots in California that are special — natural or human-made — and tell us why they're important to you.
Hermano Drive in Tarzana is the only cul-de-sac in L.A. where there is an ordinance specifically making it illegal to skateboard. (Mel Melcon / Los Angeles Times)
Today's great photo is from Times photographer Mel Melcon on Hermano Drive in Tarzana, the only cul-de-sac in L.A. where an ordinance specifically outlaws skateboarding.
Have a great day, from the Essential California team
Ryan Fonseca, reporter
Elvia Limón, multiplatform editor
Kevinisha Walker, multiplatform editor
Laura Blasey, assistant editor
Check our top stories, topics and the latest articles on latimes.com.
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